General
Bookmaking on the outcome of a sports event (horseracing, football, Formula 1 and many more) with real, living sportsmen is different from the other games of chance, especially because of different, previously determined fixed betting odds as regards the possible results of a sports event.
While, for instance, drawing of a certain number from a given quantity of numbers at roulette or in the lottery is always equally likely, the possible outcome of a horserace (determining the winner among the competitors) or a football game (determining the winner) is not equally probable, since there are always favourites and outsiders.
For many people, one’s own evaluation of chances represents the appeal of gambling. The probabilities for natural sport events, with real sportsmen, certainly cannot be mathematically exactly "calculated".
Here, all the sports fans and also the bookmakers, rely on estimation and assumptions. Even when some odds seem profitable to them, the risk is still there for them to lose their wagers.
The number of possible predictions
When placing a sports bet, the number of possible predictions ("tips") results from the sum of the outcome possibilities for the tipped sports event. The higher the number of the possible predictions for one bet, the higher the level of the betting difficulty, which deteriorates the theoretically determined, "purely computational" winning probability.
The possible predictions for a sports bet, for instance, in the outcome format "home win-draw-away win" (tendency bet) ware exactly presented by these three outcomes. One of these is bound to happen. Through the combination of up to "n” sports events, which must be correctly predicted in a bet (combined bet), further outcome possibilities result, according to the following formula:
The formula shows that the chances of winning disproportionately decrease with the increasing predictions.
Probability of occurrence and the odds
The smaller the probability of occurrence for a certain outcome ("home win-draw-away win"), the higher the winning odds. And vice versa, it is also true that, with the increasing probability of occurrence, the odds are falling. The winning odds "Q", and the probability of occurrence "p” have an exactly reversely proportional connection.
If an "assumed" probability of occurrence for a home win amounts to, for instance, 50% (p =0.5), the odds resulting from that is 2.0.
Besides, the sum of individual outcome probabilities for a sports event always represent exactly the value "1" (=100%). This means that, for a football game, of the three possible result outputs (home win-draw-away win) one of these shall surely occur. However, if we totalize the reciprocal value of the winning odds (for instance home win-draw-away win) for a fixture, then we always have a higher value than "1".
Combination possibilities
| Number of events in a bet ("predictions") |
Number of possibilities |
"Theoretical" winning probability |
| 1 |
3 |
33.333% |
| 2 |
9 |
11.111% |
| 3 |
27 |
3.704% |
| 4 |
81 |
1.235% |
| 5 |
243 |
0.412% |
| 6 |
729 |
0.137% |
| 7 |
2187 |
0.046% |
| 8 |
6561 |
0.015% |
| 9 |
19683 |
0.005% |
| 10 |
59049 |
0.002% |
In a combined bet, you can condense several bets on different events to only one bet.
If you make predictions, in a combined bet, for three events (matches) then already 27 different outcome probabilities arise. Thereby, theoretical winning probability for having made the correct prediction decreases to about 3.7 percent, or, in other words, to 1:27.
In the event of 10 predicted events (matches) in one bet, the winning probability, e.g. the probability to be right, decreases to about 1:50.000 (0.002%). The fact that not all the possibilities are equally probable improves the overall chances for you when betting. Therefore, there are other winning odds for every outcome.
Probability of occurrence and the odds
| |
Home win |
Draw |
Away win |
Quota key |
| Quotas |
2.00 |
3.50 |
3.00 |
|
| Reciprocal value |
0.50 |
+0.29 |
+0.33 |
=1.22 |
| Presumed probability |
44% |
26% |
30% |
100% |
The reciprocal value sum calculated in the above example of 1.12 is the bookmaker’s so called "quota key" QT, by which the odds are reduced calculatory in relation to the presumed probability of occurrence so that the bookmaker can receive his own hold or take-out of all the wagers. In this example, in total EUR 1.12 should be wagered so as to surely get back EUR 1.00; namely, EUR 0.5 on home win, EUR 0.29 on draw and EUR 0.33 on away win.
Fixed odds and the probabilities connected with these shall always remain only as presumptions and estimates of the betting organizer, as regards performance capability of the sportsmen.
Payout quota and the imposed fees (taxes) for individual bets
The "computational" payout quota indicates the share of the wagers that should be calculatory paid out to the participants in betting. The higher the payout quota, the lower the quota key of the bookmaker.
According to the above example, one retains the (calculated) payout quota A again as reciprocal value of the quota key.
In this example, it is planned to distribute 89% of the wagers as winnings.
If the bookmaker charges fees on bets, no matter whether as a lump sum per betting slip, or as percentage of wagers (premium), so as to, for instance, cover the betting taxes, then the payout quota shall be proportionately deteriorated. Namely, the winnings are to be paid out only on net wagers, not on the fees. Therefore, the fees "Geb", in the form of a surcharge, increase, on percentage basis, the quota key of the bookmaker.
| Wager |
10.00 EUR |
| Fee |
0.50 EUR |
| = Surcharge in % |
5.00 % |
| Surcharge as per quota key |
0.05 |
The surcharge as per the already calculated quota key indicates a proportionally decreased payout quota of 85 % according to the following formula:
A =
1(Qt+Geb)
=
1(1.12+0.05)
= 0.85
The payout quota is significant for consideration over a longer period of time. For one tip, a bet can only be "won", or "lost". Anyhow, your chances to win increase with the higher payout quota. In order to compare the value for money of a betting service, you should consider the odds offered by the bookmaker and the fees. The total payout, in case of winning, may in spite of a fee for payment of the betting tax be higher that without a fee.
Payout quotas for combination bets
Contrary to individual bet, where one predicts the outcome of one sports event, in combination bets, one should make several predictions of at least 2 or 3, and in general of up to 10 events (matches). What is so attractive in this kind of betting is the increase of the total odds because the betting odds of the predictions made are mutually multiplied. Since the odds are always higher than "1", the result of the multiplication (mathematical "product") rises, with the number of the combined bets. So you can, already with the smallest wagers, achieve five-digit winning amounts. Certainly, the payout quotas of the combined bets shall be also mutually multiplied. The payout quota is, however, always lower than "1". Here, the result of multiplication decreases with the rising number of the combined bets, i.e. the total payout quota decreases (based on a smaller winning probability). Between the odds and the probabilities, there is an already described fixed connection.
The following table is showing the arising total payout quotas for 1 to 10 combined predictions with different payouts of 80% and 90%. The individual payout quota of 80% (or even 90%) is only possible when individual bets are permitted as tips. Often, a minimum combination obligation exists for predictions of at least 3 fixtures. Nevertheless, the minimal possible combination of 3 fixtures indicates a calculatory payout of more than 50%, which can be still more favourable than in other betting and gambling offers (lottery, Toto). If a bookmaker applies a smaller quota key, which allows a higher payout quota of as much as 90 percent, then the product of the multiplied payout quotas is clearly higher. In a minimal possible combination of 3 fixtures, an even higher payout of approximately 73% of the betting income appears, which is, in general, higher than in many other betting and gambling offers. Should one of the matches tipped by you fall out, this tip shall be null and void. The odds for the match fallen out shall be then set at a neutral value "1", i.e. it shall be graded as "non-starter". Thereby, no disadvantage occurs for you.
Total payout quotas in combination bets
| Number of events in one bet ("prediction") |
Cumulated payout quota as percentage |
| 1 |
80% |
90% |
| 2 |
64% |
81% |
| 3 |
51% |
73% |
| 4 |
41% |
66% |
| 5 |
33% |
59% |
| 6 |
26% |
53% |
| 7 |
21% |
48% |
| 8 |
17% |
43% |
| 9 |
13% |
39% |
| 10 |
11% |
35% |
Multiple combination bets – system bets/accumulator bets
In order to decrease the risk of incorrect predictions, you can place multiple combination bets, which are generally known as the so called system bets or accumulator bets. Thereby, one can actually increase one’s own winning chances.
On one betting slip, you can indicate, for the fixtures, several tips as the same time, so as to cover different results. If you indicate only one tip, you shall cover only one of the prediction possibilities. When you indicate several different tips, the winning probability shall also rise. In case of two different tips at the same time, you shall cover two probabilities, in case of three tips, there are already three prediction probabilities, and so on. The winning probability increases in the same proportion: in case of two tips, it is two times higher, in case of three tips, three times higher, etc. than in case of only one tip. The whole thing has, however, one tremendous hook: each tip requires additional money, since it is each time one’s own bet.
Basically, all the mathematically possible combination bets "x" are individually "tipped" only from a given number of events "y". Thereby, it is the matter of only one "shortened spelling" of many individual combination bets on one betting slip, which should, otherwise, be tipped individually.
Multiple combination bets (x of y)
| Number of events (Y) |
(x=1)
1 of y |
(x=2)
2 of y |
(x=3)
3 of y |
(x=4)
4 of y |
(x=5)
5 of y |
(x=6)
6 of y |
(x=7)
7 of y |
(x=8)
8 of y |
Max. number of tips |
| 2 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
| 3 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
| 4 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
15 |
| 5 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
31 |
| 6 |
6 |
15 |
20 |
15 |
6 |
1 |
|
|
63 |
| 7 |
7 |
21 |
35 |
35 |
21 |
7 |
1 |
|
127 |
| 8 |
8 |
28 |
56 |
708 |
56 |
28 |
8 |
1 |
255 |
The above table indicates all the possible individual and multiple combinations for up to 8 different events. Thus, you can, for instance, tick off ten different triple combination bets for 5 betting events (3 of 5) or create fifteen different quadruple combination bets for 6 betting events (4 of 6). If you would like to place bets on all the possible betting combinations for 5 events (2 of 5, 3 of 5, 4 of 5 and 5 of 5, plus individual bets), you would have to place 31 different bets, and to pay a wager 31 times.
The payout quota for these 31 bets shall thereby not increase, since each prediction of the submitted tips is always evaluated individually, and for every prediction there is a total quota according to the quota key of the bookmaker.
Further information
Detailed factual information regarding the odds and the probabilities, as well as the risks of individual games of chance and betting offers, can be found on the internet. Apart from that, you can also send your questions to the betting operator.